Israel elections

Israel votes today. I fail to get excited by any of the parties on offer. As I wrote earlier, I was in Tel Aviv on the day in 1999 when Barak’s Labour party defeated Netanyahu’s Likud, which itself had come to power in the election after the assassination of Rabin. That was a heady day, though unfortunately, due to Arafat’s miscalculations, no peace was to result. Instead there was the second Intifada, which in turn brought hardline parties to power and gave us Netanyahu for the last few years.

N could soon be indicted for fraud and bribery. But if he wins, he will try to pass a law that a sitting PM cannot be indicted. Like his pal Dotard. Of course, Netanyahu and Trump are now as much in love as Kim and Trump. I doubt this is good for Israel in the long run, but these days, short term thinking trumps all.  Losing Democrats support in the US will in the long run not be good for Israel, but just like Wall Street, politicians these days often don’t think past the next quarter. A lot of US evangelicals believe that the Jews believe in Christ, and N is happy to encourage that, even nodding when Pompous Pompeo speculated that Trump was sent by God to save Israel from Iran. God must be having a good laugh.....

Every election in Israel brings new parties, one or 2 of which do well, and this time is no different, with former army general Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party the main opposition to Netanyahu.  It draws a lot of its support from ex-Labour voters, but is not as Centrist, though they do officially back the two-state solution. If they do form the govt, which looks doubtful, it will be less radical than Netanyahu’s govt would be, but besides that, one does not know much. They would also need coalition support from parties further right.

There are 47 parties taking part, a lot for 6.5 million voters. Around 12 to 15 will cross the 3.5% barrier and get at least a seat or 2 in Parliament. Many of these are religious parties, which would favor Netanyahu in a coalition scramble. Especially as N has now said he would annex the settlements in the west bank, effectively creating an apartheid state. Israeli Arabs, who would make up 20% of the voters, are apathetic this time, as the Arab parties squabble among themselves. Weak leadership and corruption has also made the Palestinians voiceless. In short, a complete mess.

Bloomberg had 2 good articles on the election.

First, Pankaj Mishra looks at it from an Asian/African perspective, and the title below says a lot. He also mentions N’s curious friendships with anti-Semites like Orban, and concludes that “Israel is unlikely to enjoy its present eminence long after the far-right wave that Netanyahu has agilely surfed has receded.”

The other article is an interview with Ami Ayalon, one time head of Bin Shet, the Israeli security agency. He makes some interesting points, if only the politicians would listen. But its not only Trump who ignores his intelligence people.

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