EU elections Part 2

Looking at the latest opinion polls (taken before the Austrian scandal), I sometimes wonder whether the rise of the far right is being hyped to something far bigger than it is. Here, from the FT, is the result based on current polls, with the groupings listed from far left to far right (my opinion), like in the earlier chart I sent. The “centre left/right” parties are shown separate in the middle. There are 751 seats, so you need 376 for a majority.

                                Seats 214       Proj. 2019       

GUE-NGL                        52                    46 
Greens-EFA                    51                     56                     

S&D                                189                   149
ALDE                                68                     97
EPP                                  217                   167

ECR                                   74                     57

EFDD                                 45                    57
ENF                                   37                     57                         

Others                               18                     65

For me, the key takeaways

1) Yes, the traditional coalition of centre-right EPP and centre-left S&D will probably fall quite short of a majority. 

2) Together with ALDE, which will now include Macron’s party, which would be a natural ally anyway, they easily get the majority. So a sort of centrist majority is the most likely outcome.

3) The strength of the groups left of the S&D is basically unchanged.

4) In this scenario, the far right (though some parties in those groups would disagree being called that) would go from 82 to 114 seats, which is sad, but hardly a catastrophe. It would be a bit more, as there are some far right parties lurking in the Other category, including the Brexit Party. And some would consider the Polish Law & Justice party, in the ECR group as far right.

I should add that the FT numbers are just one take, and other prognosticators differ quite a bit. A lot depends on turnout and how it was modelled. Also, the Austrian scandal could still depress the far right vote elsewhere, though its difficult to be sure, and know by how much. 

One week to go.

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