Brexit update
We had a rare show yesterday, with Speaker Bercow (unknown a month ago, but now a great hero) allowing votes on 7 amendments regarding Brexit, and there was almost 3 hours of 600 people voting. You need real stamina for that, as people will need if the UK really crashes out of the EU. And it was the Commons, and not the Lords, so there were no crazy clothes to laugh at and help pass the time.
5 of the amendments failed, 4 by small margins. But 2 did pass.
One was to avoid “no deal”. So at least we now know that there is a majority in Parliament to avoid No Deal. On the other hand, the amendment or its sponsors have not put forward any idea as to how to avoid it. Its not as though the UK can decide that unilaterally. It also weakens May a bit in further negotiations, as the EU now also knows that the UK does not want No Deal. The game of chess can carry on.
The second amendment that passed was to renegotiate the Irish border. The famous old Backstop, that I have written about often, including “its backstops all the way down”. Again, no suggestion about what can replace the backstop.
But this I think finally gives an opportunity for the EU to do what it does best - fudge.
Currently the backstop is designed to go on until both sides agree that there is an acceptable other way to move goods across the Irish border without checks. Hard Brexiteers fear this could mean forever, which is probably true. But now that hard Brexiteers have seen that there is no majority for No Deal, they have to fear that blocking May now will result in an even softer Brexit or no Brexit at all. More chess.
Which will make them more open to an EU fudge. I am working on language to suggest, as are plenty of others. The markets clearly believe that no deal is off the table, and the UK will not crash out, as both the Footsie and the Pound are strongly up.
Which means there are probably only 2 options left.
- a second referendum, and no Brexit (or Option 2 below)
- a soft Brexit, like the Norway model, until such time as the EU fudge expires, ehich could also be never.
So after 2 1/2 years of blood, sweat and tears, nothing much will change, except the UK looking really foolish - like Dotard after the shutdown.
Come to think of it - maybe that is the solution. Let Dotard build a big, beautiful wall in Ireland. Of course, he would have to find somebody to pay for it. They can play chess on top of it.
5 of the amendments failed, 4 by small margins. But 2 did pass.
One was to avoid “no deal”. So at least we now know that there is a majority in Parliament to avoid No Deal. On the other hand, the amendment or its sponsors have not put forward any idea as to how to avoid it. Its not as though the UK can decide that unilaterally. It also weakens May a bit in further negotiations, as the EU now also knows that the UK does not want No Deal. The game of chess can carry on.
The second amendment that passed was to renegotiate the Irish border. The famous old Backstop, that I have written about often, including “its backstops all the way down”. Again, no suggestion about what can replace the backstop.
But this I think finally gives an opportunity for the EU to do what it does best - fudge.
Currently the backstop is designed to go on until both sides agree that there is an acceptable other way to move goods across the Irish border without checks. Hard Brexiteers fear this could mean forever, which is probably true. But now that hard Brexiteers have seen that there is no majority for No Deal, they have to fear that blocking May now will result in an even softer Brexit or no Brexit at all. More chess.
Which will make them more open to an EU fudge. I am working on language to suggest, as are plenty of others. The markets clearly believe that no deal is off the table, and the UK will not crash out, as both the Footsie and the Pound are strongly up.
Which means there are probably only 2 options left.
- a second referendum, and no Brexit (or Option 2 below)
- a soft Brexit, like the Norway model, until such time as the EU fudge expires, ehich could also be never.
So after 2 1/2 years of blood, sweat and tears, nothing much will change, except the UK looking really foolish - like Dotard after the shutdown.
Come to think of it - maybe that is the solution. Let Dotard build a big, beautiful wall in Ireland. Of course, he would have to find somebody to pay for it. They can play chess on top of it.
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