Race to 2020
So the record has been smashed. There have never been 2 women vying for a major party nomination, but we now have 4 Dems in the race for 2020, and will probably have more. Elizabeth Warren kicked it off with her announcement on New Year’s eve, and in the meantime, Kirsten Gillebrand, Tulsi Gabbard and Kamala Harris have joined the fray. The progressive female lane is getting crowded. And there is still Amy Klobuchar, Oprah, and Michelle Obama, who has given the Full Sherman denial, but would be top of the charts if she does jump in. (Not to mention Kim Kardashian, 500 to 1 at the London bookies. Perhaps with Kanye as VP.)
On PredictIt, Kamala leads again at 20c, followed by Beto at 17c and Biden at 15c. The London bookies vary, but are in that ballpark. Still a long way to go, so unless you are an active speculator, take these odds with handfuls of salt.
From the men, only Julian Castro (and the unknowns Delaney, Ojeda and Yang) has thrown his hat in, but expect the Senators lane with Cory Booker, Sherrod Brown and possibly Merkley and Sanders to announce soon. Also Joe Biden.
Missing so far is the Governors lane, with Jay Inslee, Steve Bullock, Terry McAuliffe and John Hickenlooper rumoured to have an interest. Also missing for the moment is the billionaires lane with Bloomberg, Mark Cuban, and Zuckerberg. Tom Steyer has said he is not running, while Starbucks’ Howard Schultz is looking at running as an independent, which I can guarantee today he will not do. But he could join the Dem showdown.
( I have almost got my US birth certificate, so may soon set up my exploratory committee 😀).
This is also turning out to be an “I am so sorry” primary, as many of the candidates have got to disown stuff they did or said in the last 10-20 years. That goes from Kamala’s tough actions as a prosecutor, to Tulsi’s anti-LGBT activism, Gillebrand’s A rating from the NRA and Biden’s support of tough sentencing laws and treatment of Anita Hill. But who hasn’t done things they regret when more mature? I could write a Tolstoy size book on my youthful stupidities.
I am getting more and more convinced that Dotard will not be the GOP candidate.
Even if not impeached, he will be so damaged by Mueller and other scandals that he may try to make a deal with Pence - you can be President for a few weeks, as long as you pardon me (Of course, as discussed earlier, the NY AG can still go after him, so the chances of his seeing the inside of a prison are still pretty good).
Waiting in the GOP wings is Nikki Haley, so that big Indian showdown could well happen in 2020. I think we can forget Pence, who has the charisma of a frog. And a fairly sleepy frog at that. Recently there has been a lot of noise around Maryland Gov Larry Hogan. He seems a nice guy, but name recognition may be an issue for him. In case Dotard does make it thru till 2020, Hogan may well primary him. He would have no chance at the GOP nomination, but would raise his name recognition for 2024. On the other hand, the Trumpkins may never forgive him.
PredictIt has Dotard at 63c, so if you are sure he will be the nominee, you can make a nice 50% gain. Next is Nikki Haley at 10c, so you could make 10 times your money if she gets the nod. Altar boy is at 7c.
On PredictIt, Kamala leads again at 20c, followed by Beto at 17c and Biden at 15c. The London bookies vary, but are in that ballpark. Still a long way to go, so unless you are an active speculator, take these odds with handfuls of salt.
From the men, only Julian Castro (and the unknowns Delaney, Ojeda and Yang) has thrown his hat in, but expect the Senators lane with Cory Booker, Sherrod Brown and possibly Merkley and Sanders to announce soon. Also Joe Biden.
Missing so far is the Governors lane, with Jay Inslee, Steve Bullock, Terry McAuliffe and John Hickenlooper rumoured to have an interest. Also missing for the moment is the billionaires lane with Bloomberg, Mark Cuban, and Zuckerberg. Tom Steyer has said he is not running, while Starbucks’ Howard Schultz is looking at running as an independent, which I can guarantee today he will not do. But he could join the Dem showdown.
( I have almost got my US birth certificate, so may soon set up my exploratory committee 😀).
This is also turning out to be an “I am so sorry” primary, as many of the candidates have got to disown stuff they did or said in the last 10-20 years. That goes from Kamala’s tough actions as a prosecutor, to Tulsi’s anti-LGBT activism, Gillebrand’s A rating from the NRA and Biden’s support of tough sentencing laws and treatment of Anita Hill. But who hasn’t done things they regret when more mature? I could write a Tolstoy size book on my youthful stupidities.
I am getting more and more convinced that Dotard will not be the GOP candidate.
Even if not impeached, he will be so damaged by Mueller and other scandals that he may try to make a deal with Pence - you can be President for a few weeks, as long as you pardon me (Of course, as discussed earlier, the NY AG can still go after him, so the chances of his seeing the inside of a prison are still pretty good).
Waiting in the GOP wings is Nikki Haley, so that big Indian showdown could well happen in 2020. I think we can forget Pence, who has the charisma of a frog. And a fairly sleepy frog at that. Recently there has been a lot of noise around Maryland Gov Larry Hogan. He seems a nice guy, but name recognition may be an issue for him. In case Dotard does make it thru till 2020, Hogan may well primary him. He would have no chance at the GOP nomination, but would raise his name recognition for 2024. On the other hand, the Trumpkins may never forgive him.
PredictIt has Dotard at 63c, so if you are sure he will be the nominee, you can make a nice 50% gain. Next is Nikki Haley at 10c, so you could make 10 times your money if she gets the nod. Altar boy is at 7c.
Comments
Post a Comment