Brexit update
I haven’t commented on Brexit for some time. The reason being that the closer we get to the cliff, the more chaotic it all becomes, so that only a full time follower with a PhD can keep abreast of the situation. One thing that has become clearer - its not only in the US that politicians are only looking after their own and their party’s interest, country be damned. The Brits have arguably taken it one step further, with both major parties only gaming out what’s better for them.
The Tories, of course, showed such tendencies even before the referendum, and that event only brought out the worst in the party, with Boris the Clown and others all trying to see where they could gain the most, like becoming PM. Now Labour has joined in fully, with Corbyn’s letter to May on his negotiating position having more to do with how he could increase his chances of being PM, than of any real concern about Brexit damaging the country. We all know that Corbyn is a not-so-secret Brexiteer, so when he pretends otherwise, he looks like a hypocrite.
There’s a month to go, and with small splinter groups breaking out of each major party, there is probably no majority for any course of action, including sending the decision back to the people. Senior leaders in both parties are telling journalists off the record that they are ready to quit. Democracy has effectively broken down.
May is clearly banking on running out the clock, hoping that in the last minute, the threat of No Deal will make many Remainers vote for her deal, and the threat of No Brexit making many hardline Brexiteers also vote for her deal. Its a fine line, but who knows, maybe she succeeds, thus delivering a soft Brexit. That will effectively make the UK follow EU rules for the foreseeable future, with no role in shaping them.
Great Britain reduced to a Little Island. Dreaming about making great trade deals with the con man in the White House. Or as a German politician put it - Are they really looking forward to eating hormone-treated beef and chlorinated chicken? (both, incidentally, banned in the EU, which has irritated The Dotard like hell).
As I have said for 2 years, I still don’t think there will be a hard Brexit, though today it seems difficult to see how that can be avoided. My current feeling is that there will be a 3 to 6 month extension, at the end of which there will be a very soft Brexit - some fudge version of May’s agreement. Again, follow the EU, but no say.
Though a second referendum could clear things up, it could also muddy the waters further. No one can agree on the Yes/No question to the voters. And having 3 choices (In/Out/May deal) will probably guarantee none get a majority.
A recent Rogen Cohen column in the NYT summarized the situation very well.
LONDON — Brexit. Brexit? Brexit! BREXIT!? The Backstop! Norway Plus! Canada Minus? The Cooper Amendment! The Malthouse Compromise? The Kyle-Wilson Amendment! Hard Brexit! Soft Brexit! No deal? Brexiteer! Remoaner! BREXIT!!?? Aaaargh.
It has come down to this with a few weeks to go until the March 29 deadline for Britain to leave the European Union, as it voted to do almost three years ago: a jumble of jargon, jousting and gibberish, with everyone sucked into the vortex of confusion, to the exclusion of every other issue in the world. Britain’s biggest political parties are splintering, and there is clarity only on the fact that nobody has a clue what is about to happen.
You can read the whole thing here
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