2020 and other stuff
Yes, yes, I know I have not written an update on the Dem horse race for 2020 for some time, but with so much going on one has to pick and choose. Brexiternity? Mueller report? Destroying the Fed? Upcoming Indian elections? Upcoming EU elections? China’s Belt and Road smooching with Italy? French jaunes gilets? Return of negative interest rates? It just breaks the narrator’s rhythm. Additionally, arguably more important than all of that, Bordeaux 2018 is about to be shown in barrel to critics, and 2016 in bottle has just hit the physical market with rave reviews.
I am also browsing through a couple of interesting books about the Rothschilds, and will come back to that some time. The acquisition of Bordeaux legends Mouton-Rothschild and Lafite-Rothschild are only minor footnotes in the history of the legendary family, which at the end of the 19th century, could well have had a greater share of worldwide income and assets than any other family, tycoon, king, kaiser or maharaja in history ever did.
But coming back to the horse race. When I wrote about it last, there were still about 700 people thinking of running, and Kamala Harris was the clear favorite with the London bookies as well as PredictIt. Well, the field has been cut down considerably. In the billionaire lane, Michael Bloomberg decided to drop out. A couple of Senators and Governors dropped out. But we are still left with 15 declared serious candidates and Joe Biden still deciding whether to announce that he has decided to run.
The polls will push Uncle Joe to run, as he leads in all of them, though at this stage, that may just reflect name recognition more than anything else. At the other end, though some of the 15 hardly register in the polls, they can take comfort in the fact that the race is just beginning.
Kamala has lost her perch with the bookies, and is right now third on PredictIt at 15c, together with Beto. But Biden is at 24 and Sanders at 22 (Reminder: That’s what you bet to get a payout of $1 if you are right). More surprising, at Nr 5 is the unpronounceable Pete Buttigeig at 14c followed by the unknown Andrew Yang at 11c. So they are both ahead of more well known names like Warren, Cory Booker or Amy Klobuchar. Let alone Mark Zuckerberg and me. The announced Governors Inslee and Hickenlooper are also way down there with me.
It would be amusing if Buttigeig became President, as most Americans would not be able to tell anybody who their President is (like my decision on moving to Holland not to live in Oegstgeest). As for Andrew Yang, an entrepreneur of Taiwanese descent, he has come from nowhere to gather crowds as well as small donor support.
With 5 women running, and a 6th (Stacey Abrams) maybe jumping in, there is a pretty good chance the nominee will be a woman. If it is a man, its very likely one of the women will be the VP candidate. On the other hand, if a woman wins, the VP candidate will certainly be a man, as Americans are probably not ready for 2 women (or even 1?).
Of course, while the men are being asked which woman they would choose as VP, the women are not being asked yet which man they would choose as VP.
That has given rise to all sort of speculation, like Biden declaring Abrams his VP choice, this covering the Midwest blue collars that need to be won back, as well as the black vote.
If Kamala gets the nod, she will need a white Midwestern man as running mate (ruling out Amy Klobuchar) and that will not be Biden, who is unlikely to want that thankless job again. And there are many more permutations.
On the GOP side, with the Mueller report not having a smoking gun, Dotard may well survive till Nov 2020. If he flames out due to other investigations (its fairly certain he is a criminal, besides being a racist, misogynist bigot, which itself is not criminal) expect Nikki Haley and Larry Hogan to jump in immediately. So theoretically, the Indian duel is still possible.
Finally, Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame is still planning to run as an Independent, but I am taking that with a cup of coffee. Will probably end up more as a storm in a coffee pot.
I am also browsing through a couple of interesting books about the Rothschilds, and will come back to that some time. The acquisition of Bordeaux legends Mouton-Rothschild and Lafite-Rothschild are only minor footnotes in the history of the legendary family, which at the end of the 19th century, could well have had a greater share of worldwide income and assets than any other family, tycoon, king, kaiser or maharaja in history ever did.
But coming back to the horse race. When I wrote about it last, there were still about 700 people thinking of running, and Kamala Harris was the clear favorite with the London bookies as well as PredictIt. Well, the field has been cut down considerably. In the billionaire lane, Michael Bloomberg decided to drop out. A couple of Senators and Governors dropped out. But we are still left with 15 declared serious candidates and Joe Biden still deciding whether to announce that he has decided to run.
The polls will push Uncle Joe to run, as he leads in all of them, though at this stage, that may just reflect name recognition more than anything else. At the other end, though some of the 15 hardly register in the polls, they can take comfort in the fact that the race is just beginning.
Kamala has lost her perch with the bookies, and is right now third on PredictIt at 15c, together with Beto. But Biden is at 24 and Sanders at 22 (Reminder: That’s what you bet to get a payout of $1 if you are right). More surprising, at Nr 5 is the unpronounceable Pete Buttigeig at 14c followed by the unknown Andrew Yang at 11c. So they are both ahead of more well known names like Warren, Cory Booker or Amy Klobuchar. Let alone Mark Zuckerberg and me. The announced Governors Inslee and Hickenlooper are also way down there with me.
It would be amusing if Buttigeig became President, as most Americans would not be able to tell anybody who their President is (like my decision on moving to Holland not to live in Oegstgeest). As for Andrew Yang, an entrepreneur of Taiwanese descent, he has come from nowhere to gather crowds as well as small donor support.
With 5 women running, and a 6th (Stacey Abrams) maybe jumping in, there is a pretty good chance the nominee will be a woman. If it is a man, its very likely one of the women will be the VP candidate. On the other hand, if a woman wins, the VP candidate will certainly be a man, as Americans are probably not ready for 2 women (or even 1?).
Of course, while the men are being asked which woman they would choose as VP, the women are not being asked yet which man they would choose as VP.
That has given rise to all sort of speculation, like Biden declaring Abrams his VP choice, this covering the Midwest blue collars that need to be won back, as well as the black vote.
If Kamala gets the nod, she will need a white Midwestern man as running mate (ruling out Amy Klobuchar) and that will not be Biden, who is unlikely to want that thankless job again. And there are many more permutations.
On the GOP side, with the Mueller report not having a smoking gun, Dotard may well survive till Nov 2020. If he flames out due to other investigations (its fairly certain he is a criminal, besides being a racist, misogynist bigot, which itself is not criminal) expect Nikki Haley and Larry Hogan to jump in immediately. So theoretically, the Indian duel is still possible.
Finally, Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame is still planning to run as an Independent, but I am taking that with a cup of coffee. Will probably end up more as a storm in a coffee pot.
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