Brexiternity
Another big Brexit day coming up - the final “meaningful vote” on May’s deal tomorrow. At that point we are down to 17 days left. After losing the last vote on her deal by over 200 votes, her strategy has been to effectively threaten both sides.
Threaten the hard Brexiteers that its either her deal or staying in the EU.
Threaten the Remainers that its either her deal or a disastrous no-deal crash out.
So for all groups involved, its an intense variation on the famous Prisoner’s Dilemma.
As of writing, it looks that it may work on the hard Brexiteers, large numbers of whom may be inclined to support the deal as they fear any delay could lead to a second referendum, and the uncertainty that brings.
But will that be enough? If she does pull it off, all the experts who predicted that May had no control over the issue would have to eat their words. However, I still doubt that she can get enough Remainers to vote for her deal to get it over the line.
One can only be amused at those who say - Lets get out and get on with it. Whether its May’s deal or no deal, that is just the beginning. Its gonna take years before the UK can “get on with it”. May’s deal only deals with the withdrawal agreement, which itself keeps the UK in the customs union and single market till end 2020. What happens after that has still to be negotiated, a process that could take years, or what somebody has christened Brexiternity. That could well become the Word of the Year in the UK.
And a no-deal also means negotiating new tariff rates with the EU, with all the countries the EU has deals with, and with those the EU doesn’t have deals with, like the US. All those negotiations haven’t even started, as just the Brexit negotiations with the EU have taken all the oxygen from the Briteaucracy. Do we accept hormone-treated beef and chlorinated chicken? Expect 100 Trump tweets if the UK says no, and hundreds of demonstrations if they say yes. And that’s just one of a few thousand issues. Another form of Brexiternity.
I feel the vote will fail only narrowly, and not by 200+ votes like last time. That will be followed the next day by a vote ruling out No-deal. This will probably pass, but the EU would have to agree to that. Since a lot of EU countries have a lot to lose with No-deal, they may well grant an extension to Brexit day, though there will be argument till the last moment about whether that should be 3 months, 6 months, a year, or what? In effect, another form of Brexiternity.
And once you have the extension, what then? Nobody wants to keep arguing over the same points for months or years more. So I think that once the UK Parliament passes no deal, the EU will agree to an extension ONLY if there is a second referendum with a single choice between May’s deal or Remain. Expect a flurry of activity in the next 2 weeks, but I think that will be the result. Remain would then be the only viable way to escape Brexiternity.
In the meantime, the UK remains in Purgatory.
Threaten the hard Brexiteers that its either her deal or staying in the EU.
Threaten the Remainers that its either her deal or a disastrous no-deal crash out.
So for all groups involved, its an intense variation on the famous Prisoner’s Dilemma.
As of writing, it looks that it may work on the hard Brexiteers, large numbers of whom may be inclined to support the deal as they fear any delay could lead to a second referendum, and the uncertainty that brings.
But will that be enough? If she does pull it off, all the experts who predicted that May had no control over the issue would have to eat their words. However, I still doubt that she can get enough Remainers to vote for her deal to get it over the line.
One can only be amused at those who say - Lets get out and get on with it. Whether its May’s deal or no deal, that is just the beginning. Its gonna take years before the UK can “get on with it”. May’s deal only deals with the withdrawal agreement, which itself keeps the UK in the customs union and single market till end 2020. What happens after that has still to be negotiated, a process that could take years, or what somebody has christened Brexiternity. That could well become the Word of the Year in the UK.
And a no-deal also means negotiating new tariff rates with the EU, with all the countries the EU has deals with, and with those the EU doesn’t have deals with, like the US. All those negotiations haven’t even started, as just the Brexit negotiations with the EU have taken all the oxygen from the Briteaucracy. Do we accept hormone-treated beef and chlorinated chicken? Expect 100 Trump tweets if the UK says no, and hundreds of demonstrations if they say yes. And that’s just one of a few thousand issues. Another form of Brexiternity.
I feel the vote will fail only narrowly, and not by 200+ votes like last time. That will be followed the next day by a vote ruling out No-deal. This will probably pass, but the EU would have to agree to that. Since a lot of EU countries have a lot to lose with No-deal, they may well grant an extension to Brexit day, though there will be argument till the last moment about whether that should be 3 months, 6 months, a year, or what? In effect, another form of Brexiternity.
And once you have the extension, what then? Nobody wants to keep arguing over the same points for months or years more. So I think that once the UK Parliament passes no deal, the EU will agree to an extension ONLY if there is a second referendum with a single choice between May’s deal or Remain. Expect a flurry of activity in the next 2 weeks, but I think that will be the result. Remain would then be the only viable way to escape Brexiternity.
In the meantime, the UK remains in Purgatory.
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