2020 May update
A month has passed, so time for this again.
With 5 women running, and a 6th (Stacey Abrams) maybe jumping in, there is a decent chance the Dem nominee will be a woman, despite the current polls. If it is a man, its very likely one of the women will be the VP candidate. On the other hand, if a woman wins, the VP candidate will certainly be a man, as Americans are probably not ready for 2 women (or even 1?).
Of course, while the men are being asked which woman they would choose as VP, the women are not being asked yet which man they would choose as VP.
That has given rise to all sort of speculation, like Biden declaring Abrams his VP choice, this covering the Midwest blue collars that need to be won back, as well as the black vote.
If Kamala gets the nod, she will need a white Midwestern man as running mate (ruling out Amy Klobuchar) and that will not be Biden, who is unlikely to want that thankless job again. And there are many more permutations.
On the GOP side, with the Mueller report not having a smoking gun, Dotard may well survive till Nov 2020. If he flames out due to other investigations (its fairly certain he is a criminal, besides being a racist, misogynist bigot, which itself is not criminal) expect Nikki Haley and Larry Hogan to jump in immediately. So theoretically, the Indian duel is still possible. Romney may also give it a shot again.
Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame is still planning to run as an Independent, but I am taking that with a cup of coffee. Will probably end up more as a storm in a coffee pot. While many Dem supporters thought he was a decent guy before, his various utterings have driven all progressives away, removing any chance of getting the Dem nomination. As an independent, he could well help Trump, which is why I think he won’t do it in the end.
Coming to the bookies, after leading for most of the last year, Kamala fell back as polls showed Biden and Sanders well ahead (around 25% each) and Buttigeig surging into third place. But she has recovered in the last 2 days as her performance at the Barr hearing has boosted her popularity again. Many commentators have suggested that just as she moved Barr to stuttering, after his “good” performance till that point, Kamala is the one to make Trump stutter. I tend to agree with that.
PredictIt currently has Biden at 26c, followed by Sanders at 21c, and Kamala and Pete both at 15c. If the last of them wins the election, he will be known as President Pete, to avoid mangling his name. It would be truly amazing if an openly gay man would get the nod in America. However, plenty of pundits think that there are plenty of Americans who would rather have a gay man than a straight woman. So you knows? Some think that having a Kamala/Pete or Pete/Kamala ticket would be a winner, but I have my doubts. Whether covering blacks, women and gays with the ticket will attract more progressives than it would repel bigots who hate one or more of those categories, is certainly an open question.
Finally, as for Dotard, he stumbles on, reducing the GOP to a fascist party. At least enough of them had the bxxls to keep him from destroying the fed as well. I do not think it likely that an outright fascist and his party can win in 2020. But we will know in 18 months.
Onward to the June update.
With 5 women running, and a 6th (Stacey Abrams) maybe jumping in, there is a decent chance the Dem nominee will be a woman, despite the current polls. If it is a man, its very likely one of the women will be the VP candidate. On the other hand, if a woman wins, the VP candidate will certainly be a man, as Americans are probably not ready for 2 women (or even 1?).
Of course, while the men are being asked which woman they would choose as VP, the women are not being asked yet which man they would choose as VP.
That has given rise to all sort of speculation, like Biden declaring Abrams his VP choice, this covering the Midwest blue collars that need to be won back, as well as the black vote.
If Kamala gets the nod, she will need a white Midwestern man as running mate (ruling out Amy Klobuchar) and that will not be Biden, who is unlikely to want that thankless job again. And there are many more permutations.
On the GOP side, with the Mueller report not having a smoking gun, Dotard may well survive till Nov 2020. If he flames out due to other investigations (its fairly certain he is a criminal, besides being a racist, misogynist bigot, which itself is not criminal) expect Nikki Haley and Larry Hogan to jump in immediately. So theoretically, the Indian duel is still possible. Romney may also give it a shot again.
Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame is still planning to run as an Independent, but I am taking that with a cup of coffee. Will probably end up more as a storm in a coffee pot. While many Dem supporters thought he was a decent guy before, his various utterings have driven all progressives away, removing any chance of getting the Dem nomination. As an independent, he could well help Trump, which is why I think he won’t do it in the end.
Coming to the bookies, after leading for most of the last year, Kamala fell back as polls showed Biden and Sanders well ahead (around 25% each) and Buttigeig surging into third place. But she has recovered in the last 2 days as her performance at the Barr hearing has boosted her popularity again. Many commentators have suggested that just as she moved Barr to stuttering, after his “good” performance till that point, Kamala is the one to make Trump stutter. I tend to agree with that.
PredictIt currently has Biden at 26c, followed by Sanders at 21c, and Kamala and Pete both at 15c. If the last of them wins the election, he will be known as President Pete, to avoid mangling his name. It would be truly amazing if an openly gay man would get the nod in America. However, plenty of pundits think that there are plenty of Americans who would rather have a gay man than a straight woman. So you knows? Some think that having a Kamala/Pete or Pete/Kamala ticket would be a winner, but I have my doubts. Whether covering blacks, women and gays with the ticket will attract more progressives than it would repel bigots who hate one or more of those categories, is certainly an open question.
Finally, as for Dotard, he stumbles on, reducing the GOP to a fascist party. At least enough of them had the bxxls to keep him from destroying the fed as well. I do not think it likely that an outright fascist and his party can win in 2020. But we will know in 18 months.
Onward to the June update.
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