User’s Guide to EU elections

Its going to be a busy and interesting rest of May on the political front, with the results announced of the Indian elections, the EU Parliament elections, as well as elections in Australia and a couple of smaller places.

The EU elections are a complete black box, except to political nerds, and even for this group, they can be confusing as hell. You could probably write several theses and earn a few PhDs following the gyrations of EU-level politics. The EU elections have normally had miserable turnout (around 40% in many countries) because of the mistaken belief that what happens in Brussels is not so important as what happens nationally. Usually they are also a way to bash local ruling parties, but hoping not to do too much local damage.

That last point is why there is so much fear that the far right, and to a lesser extent, the far left will gain considerably at this year’s elections. That in turn could significantly affect the day to day functioning of the EU, as well as have consequences for Brexit, the euro, and the handling of any future crisis.

The EU Parliament is unusual in that MEPs do not sit in country blocs, but form ideological blocs that band together for power. With around 200 parties from the 28 countries represented, you can imagine that these blocs are highly elastic, with new blocs forming and dissolving for each Parliament, and smaller parties moving between the blocs. Most of the time, the centre-right EPP are the biggest group, the centre-left S&D the next biggest, and together they rule. That is also currently the case.

All clear so far?

As per Wikipedia, this is the current standing of existing European Parliament groups.

Group		Sub-parties	Leader(s)	Est.	MEPs
	European People's Party (EPP)	European People's Party (EPP) +1 unaffiliated national party +4 independent politicians	Manfred Weber	2009	217
	Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D)	Party of European Socialists (PES) +3 unaffiliated national parties	Gianni Pittella	2009	189
	European Conservatives and Reformists(ECR)	Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe (ACRE) European Christian Political Movement (ECPM) + 1 unaffiliated national party + 2 independent politicians	Syed Kamall	2009	74
	Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE)	Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe(ALDE) European Democratic Party (EDP) + 5 unaffiliated national parties	Guy Verhofstadt	2004	68
	European United Left–Nordic Green Left(GUE-NGL)	Party of the European Left (PEL) European Anti-Capitalist Left (EACL) Nordic Green Left Alliance (NGLA) Maintenant le Peuple (MLP) + 10 unaffiliated national parties	Gabriele Zimmer	1995	52
	Greens–European Free Alliance (Greens–EFA)	European Green Party (EGP) European Free Alliance (EFA) + 3 unaffiliated national parties + 2 independent politicians	Rebecca Harms Philippe Lamberts	1999	51
	Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy(EFDD)	Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe(ADDE) + 1 unaffiliated national party + 1 independent politician	Nigel Farage	2014	45
	Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF)	European Alliance for Freedom (EAF) Movement for a Europe of Nations and Freedom (MENF) + 2 unaffiliated national parties + 2 independent politicians	Marine Le Pen Marcel de Graaff	2015	37
	Non-Inscrits (NI)	Alliance for Peace and Freedom (APF) Alliance of European National Movements(AENM) Initiative of Communist and Workers' Parties(INITIATIVE) +3 unaffiliated national parties +4 independent politicians	N/A		18
Source for MEPs: Seats by Member State			Total		751

On a scale from extreme left to extreme right, this is how I would rank them, based on their constituent parties (though others may well disagree, and its not quite so black and white)

GUE-NGL, Greens-EFA, S&D, ALDE, EPP, ECR, EFDD, ENF.

So the last 2, the extreme right wing, have around 11% of the seats based on the 2014 vote. There are fears that they could well get 30% or more this time, with the parties of Le Pen, Salvini, and the German AfD all surging, together with wins for all the  far right parties

In the smaller countries all adding up. If they do, that could well complicate and even jam up the currently cosy EU decision making of the EPP and the S&D. In fact, these 2 will definitely lose their majority together, and would need to enlist the liberal centrist ALDE (which includes Macron’s En Marche) and probably 1 of the 2 Green blocs to have a majority.

The UK Tories are not part of the EPP, as one would expect, but the lead party in the ECR. Per opinion polls, they will get decimated this time, with most of that vote going to bigot Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. Macron may well start a new group, and depending on which other parties join, that would provide a new twist in the relative strengths of the blocs. And there is some disagreement in polls as to how well the extreme left will do.

All confusing so far?

Well, you are not alone.