Brexiternity Update June
There are 2 big political contests right now with plenty of contenders. As the Dem 2020 nomination is still a way off, will update that later. But lets now get into the meat of the @ToryLeadershipContest, which will come to its scary finale pretty soon. To recap how the thing works, anybody can throw their hat into the ring, but need the backing of at least 8 Tory MPs. 10 people made the cut, and now in a series of votes among the 300 or so Tory MPs, that will finally be brought down to 2 candidates. Then the party’s 120000 paying members will choose one of them as Tory Leader, who in this case will automatically become the next Prime Minister.
So the fate of Great Britain (or Little England) is in the hands of those 120000 members, who are disproportionately old, white and rich, as compared to the general population, and disproportionately voted for Brexit. What can possibly go wrong?
Clown Boris is the overwhelming favorite at just 1.5 to 1 with the London bookies, and 74% on PredictIt. He would definitely win the party vote - the only way to prevent him is for MPs to keep him from reaching the Final 2. While that’s possible, its looking increasingly unlikely. Just as many GOP Senators and Reps may dislike Trump and think him a disaster, but support him to save their own skins - many Tory MPs who hate Boris may well calculate that he may be better for their jobs. The UK be damned.
It is actually absurd that the PM will be decided by a bunch of Victorians in top hats like Jacob Rees-Mogg (who is not standing). Sajid Javid, the only migrant background person among the 10, called Boris “yesterday’s news” and said people didn’t want “the same old insiders with the same old school ties”, making a clear distinction between most of the “higher class” contenders and himself, the son of an immigrant bus driver. He is in 4th place with the bookies.
As it happens, 8 of the 10 (including Javid) have more or less committed to leaving without a deal if they cannot get a better deal with the EU. They tout the “phenomenal” deals they will make immediately with the US and other countries (like India).
Rafael Behr in the Guardian has the best description of what would then happen.
“In reality, the first calls that any prime minister would make within hours of a no-deal Brexit are not to Washington but to Brussels. The topic would not be chlorinated chicken imports but averting a crisis at Dover and patching together ad-hoc legal arrangements to sustain the inward flow of vital goods. The balance of power in that conversation would not be on the British side.
Deep down, the majority of Conservative MPs know that the whole enterprise is a warehouse full of snake oil. So there is a twisted logic in giving the sales job to Johnson, their most talented charlatan.”
The Brexit they crave, one that unites party and nation without ruin or rancour, is already dead. There is only so long that a government can parade a corpse and ask the public to admire it. ”
————————
Of course, the biggest delusion among the Tories (and others) is that this is an internal British (or even Tory) matter and it can be solved among themselves. You continuously hear people say - Let’s get out and just get on with it. As though you just close the island and everybody lives happily ever after.
In actual fact, of the 3 most likely outcomes
- No deal exit
- Exit with May’s deal
- No exit and a second referendum
no deal would result in the longest Brexiternity. The chaos it creates could take several years to resolve, if it could be resolved at all. Leavers say that the UK can handle the tens of thousands of trucks crossing the channel every day, just like they did before joining the EU. Ha,ha. That was 45 years ago. And all that land needed for that has long since been converted to offices, housing and so on.
Anybody who has seen Rotterdam and Dover would see the difference. Rotterdam harbour alone probably has more space today than all British harbours combined. Smaller harbours like Hull or Newcastle would come to a halt on Day 1 of No Deal. They had space in 1973 before the UK joined the EU. That space is long gone. Today trucks just roll off the ferries and drive away. If they have to be checked and paper work done, forget it.
Which is why, as the EU tires of the whole charade, there is an increasing likelihood that there will be no more negotiation. Its May’s deal or nothing. The Brits need to finally realize that this is not just their decision to make, that they cannot just decide to win the World Cup (cricket or football), as there are others involved. And while the EU would hate a no deal scenario, they are better prepared, and could well say, So be it.
More likely, as Rafael says above, the Brits would have to run back to Brussels for help.
How the mighty have fallen......
Update 13/6 - So 3 candidates got knocked out in the first round, including the 2 most rabid No Deal devotees. They were both women, which unfortunately means there are no women left. Boris got by far the most votes, 114 out of 313. Now the others will have to plot to keep him from making the Top 2.
More next week.
So the fate of Great Britain (or Little England) is in the hands of those 120000 members, who are disproportionately old, white and rich, as compared to the general population, and disproportionately voted for Brexit. What can possibly go wrong?
Clown Boris is the overwhelming favorite at just 1.5 to 1 with the London bookies, and 74% on PredictIt. He would definitely win the party vote - the only way to prevent him is for MPs to keep him from reaching the Final 2. While that’s possible, its looking increasingly unlikely. Just as many GOP Senators and Reps may dislike Trump and think him a disaster, but support him to save their own skins - many Tory MPs who hate Boris may well calculate that he may be better for their jobs. The UK be damned.
It is actually absurd that the PM will be decided by a bunch of Victorians in top hats like Jacob Rees-Mogg (who is not standing). Sajid Javid, the only migrant background person among the 10, called Boris “yesterday’s news” and said people didn’t want “the same old insiders with the same old school ties”, making a clear distinction between most of the “higher class” contenders and himself, the son of an immigrant bus driver. He is in 4th place with the bookies.
As it happens, 8 of the 10 (including Javid) have more or less committed to leaving without a deal if they cannot get a better deal with the EU. They tout the “phenomenal” deals they will make immediately with the US and other countries (like India).
Rafael Behr in the Guardian has the best description of what would then happen.
“In reality, the first calls that any prime minister would make within hours of a no-deal Brexit are not to Washington but to Brussels. The topic would not be chlorinated chicken imports but averting a crisis at Dover and patching together ad-hoc legal arrangements to sustain the inward flow of vital goods. The balance of power in that conversation would not be on the British side.
Deep down, the majority of Conservative MPs know that the whole enterprise is a warehouse full of snake oil. So there is a twisted logic in giving the sales job to Johnson, their most talented charlatan.”
The Brexit they crave, one that unites party and nation without ruin or rancour, is already dead. There is only so long that a government can parade a corpse and ask the public to admire it. ”
————————
Of course, the biggest delusion among the Tories (and others) is that this is an internal British (or even Tory) matter and it can be solved among themselves. You continuously hear people say - Let’s get out and just get on with it. As though you just close the island and everybody lives happily ever after.
In actual fact, of the 3 most likely outcomes
- No deal exit
- Exit with May’s deal
- No exit and a second referendum
no deal would result in the longest Brexiternity. The chaos it creates could take several years to resolve, if it could be resolved at all. Leavers say that the UK can handle the tens of thousands of trucks crossing the channel every day, just like they did before joining the EU. Ha,ha. That was 45 years ago. And all that land needed for that has long since been converted to offices, housing and so on.
Anybody who has seen Rotterdam and Dover would see the difference. Rotterdam harbour alone probably has more space today than all British harbours combined. Smaller harbours like Hull or Newcastle would come to a halt on Day 1 of No Deal. They had space in 1973 before the UK joined the EU. That space is long gone. Today trucks just roll off the ferries and drive away. If they have to be checked and paper work done, forget it.
Which is why, as the EU tires of the whole charade, there is an increasing likelihood that there will be no more negotiation. Its May’s deal or nothing. The Brits need to finally realize that this is not just their decision to make, that they cannot just decide to win the World Cup (cricket or football), as there are others involved. And while the EU would hate a no deal scenario, they are better prepared, and could well say, So be it.
More likely, as Rafael says above, the Brits would have to run back to Brussels for help.
How the mighty have fallen......
Update 13/6 - So 3 candidates got knocked out in the first round, including the 2 most rabid No Deal devotees. They were both women, which unfortunately means there are no women left. Boris got by far the most votes, 114 out of 313. Now the others will have to plot to keep him from making the Top 2.
More next week.
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