Dem debates
Who would have thought?
The Dem debates turned the horse race upside down.
At our last update, Biden was well ahead in the polls and with the bookies. Kamala, who had been the bookies favorite for all of 2018, had fallen into 5th place both in the polls and with the bookies. It looked like Biden was going to run away with it.
What a difference a debate makes. At the bookies, Kamala is again in the lead, closely followed by Warren and Biden. Sanders and Buttigeig then bring up the Top 5. The rest are still only also-rans. Will have to see in the next 2-3 days if the polls also reflect that.
Looking at the debates together, Kamala was the clear winner, followed by Warren and Buttigeig. Her gentle but firm takedown of Biden has been replayed and rehashed by the pundits a hundred times. She clearly shows she has what it takes to take on Trump. Her story about the little girl being bussed to school will live on for a long time.
Biden appeared old and out of touch, and when he twice said, “Sorry, my time is over, I think”, it appeared to be a metaphor for his time in politics, and not his time at the debate.
Sanders as usual was a little too grumpy and a little too loud, and his act has probably worn thin. Which we may well find out is the case with Trump’s act as well. Mayor Pete, in contrast, showed quietly that he is a force to be reckoned with.
And in the other debate, Warren clearly showed her grasp of the issues. As I wrote last time, I would rather live in Warren’s America. But whether she is “likeable” enough to beat Trump is unfortunately still in doubt. To all the “deplorables” and other ignorant people who voted for Dotard, she probably comes across as too wonky. In that debate, Cory Booker and Julian Castro also did pretty well, though probably not well enough to move the needle.
So it looks like its still going to be between the Big 5. None of the second tier candidates shone enough to break into the top. And Marianne Williamson, the life guru who somehow made it onto the stage provided plenty of fodder in her 5 minutes for the late night hosts. You can read Alexandra’ Petri’s fairly hilarious (and a bit unfair) fantasy report on WIlliamson in WaPo. Excerpt - “We are all dreams in the mind of Marianne Williamson. If she stops believing in us even for a second, we will all vanish.”
A Kamala/Pete ticket would be amazing, breaking multiple American taboos in one go. Whether Americans are ready for that is another question.
We now wait for the polls to see if the pundits have it right.
The Dem debates turned the horse race upside down.
At our last update, Biden was well ahead in the polls and with the bookies. Kamala, who had been the bookies favorite for all of 2018, had fallen into 5th place both in the polls and with the bookies. It looked like Biden was going to run away with it.
What a difference a debate makes. At the bookies, Kamala is again in the lead, closely followed by Warren and Biden. Sanders and Buttigeig then bring up the Top 5. The rest are still only also-rans. Will have to see in the next 2-3 days if the polls also reflect that.
Looking at the debates together, Kamala was the clear winner, followed by Warren and Buttigeig. Her gentle but firm takedown of Biden has been replayed and rehashed by the pundits a hundred times. She clearly shows she has what it takes to take on Trump. Her story about the little girl being bussed to school will live on for a long time.
Biden appeared old and out of touch, and when he twice said, “Sorry, my time is over, I think”, it appeared to be a metaphor for his time in politics, and not his time at the debate.
Sanders as usual was a little too grumpy and a little too loud, and his act has probably worn thin. Which we may well find out is the case with Trump’s act as well. Mayor Pete, in contrast, showed quietly that he is a force to be reckoned with.
And in the other debate, Warren clearly showed her grasp of the issues. As I wrote last time, I would rather live in Warren’s America. But whether she is “likeable” enough to beat Trump is unfortunately still in doubt. To all the “deplorables” and other ignorant people who voted for Dotard, she probably comes across as too wonky. In that debate, Cory Booker and Julian Castro also did pretty well, though probably not well enough to move the needle.
So it looks like its still going to be between the Big 5. None of the second tier candidates shone enough to break into the top. And Marianne Williamson, the life guru who somehow made it onto the stage provided plenty of fodder in her 5 minutes for the late night hosts. You can read Alexandra’ Petri’s fairly hilarious (and a bit unfair) fantasy report on WIlliamson in WaPo. Excerpt - “We are all dreams in the mind of Marianne Williamson. If she stops believing in us even for a second, we will all vanish.”
A Kamala/Pete ticket would be amazing, breaking multiple American taboos in one go. Whether Americans are ready for that is another question.
We now wait for the polls to see if the pundits have it right.
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