Dem Nomination - June update
So back to the horse race, which we haven’t updated for some time.
To summarize what has happened so far - out of the 700+ politicians, celebrities, billionaires, crooks (some overlapping with previous categories), do-gooders, resisters, clowns and others that had expressed interest in joining the race for the Dem 2020 nomination, a total of just 24 finally threw their hat into the ring.
Strangely, the billionaire’s lane, which would have the least problems with funding, dried up altogether, with Bloomberg, Zuckerberg, Cuban and Oprah all giving it a pass, and Starbucks Schultz looking at an independent run (which also probably won’t happen). Perhaps they all felt that Americans have already seen what a disaster a billionaire President can be.
Which leaves us with
- the further left or Socialist lane, comprising Sanders and Warren
- the left-y lane with Kamala, Booker, Yang and a couple of likely also-rans
- the just-about-left lane with Pete B, Amy Klobuchar, Jay Inslee and others
- the moderate lane dominated by Joe Biden, with Hickenlooper, Gillebrand and many other likely also-rans
The first debates are in 10 days time, and 4 of the 24 didn’t qualify. The rest will strive to remain relevant in their lane.
Coming to the bookies favorites, Kamala had been leading for most of last year. Being so far out, that didn’t say much. Now Biden is well ahead of the rest of the field, followed by Sanders, Warren, Pete B and Kamala, with the rest (including last year’s Texas star Beto) barely registering. Of course, there’s still 17 months to go, so a lot will change, but as of today, it does look like it will be between those 5.
On PredictIt, Biden leads at 27c, followed by Warren at 19, Biden 18, Pete at 16, and Kamala and Andrew Yang both at 11. Everbody else is below 5. Yang was only at 2c a couple of months ago, so if you had bet on him then, you could have pocketed 500%.
Who is Yang, you ask? In this diverse Dem race, with an unprecedented 6 women in the running, he is the other of an unprecedented 2 with Asian backgrounds, Kamala being the other (Tulsi, despite the Indian name, is not). The son of Taiwanese immigrants, he was involved in a lot of startups, mainly with social purposes. His signature issue is a guaranteed income of $ 1000 for all (as I wrote a year ago or so, trials of guaranteed income are underway in Holland, Finland and Kenya). Like Pete B, he has come from nowhere to do much better than half the field.
Coming to Pete Buttigeig, people laughed a year ago when he showed signs of joining the fray, saying Americans would never vote for an openly gay man as President. Well, well, now it looks like Americans may be more open to a gay man than a straight woman. In any case, he has shot up in the polls, and always been in the top 5 in the last 2 months. If he did become President, he would always be President Pete, as nobody can pronounce his last name without doing damage to their throats (except the Dutch, maybe. They have a lot of practice at that sort of thing).
Looking at all the candidates’ websites, I would like to live in Warren’s America. She has a plan for everything. Health care, education, veterans, criminal and prison reform, fighting poverty, inequality - name the issue, she has a plan. And most of those plans have a real appeal for liberal people like me.
Bake the best cake? Keep your clothes ironed? Train your dog? I am sure she has plans for all that as well.
The only problem is, I don’t think a policy wonk can win in a country where the majority of people are completely uninformed. The entire Resistance has only 1 goal, to defeat Trump (or the MF, as many of them politely call him, or Dotard, as I impolitely call him). They will probably coalesce around the candidate with the best chance of doing so, which right now looks like Biden. I personally think a Biden/Kamala ticket would be great, but Kamala will probably disagree with the order there.
But still a while to go. May the best horse win.
To summarize what has happened so far - out of the 700+ politicians, celebrities, billionaires, crooks (some overlapping with previous categories), do-gooders, resisters, clowns and others that had expressed interest in joining the race for the Dem 2020 nomination, a total of just 24 finally threw their hat into the ring.
Strangely, the billionaire’s lane, which would have the least problems with funding, dried up altogether, with Bloomberg, Zuckerberg, Cuban and Oprah all giving it a pass, and Starbucks Schultz looking at an independent run (which also probably won’t happen). Perhaps they all felt that Americans have already seen what a disaster a billionaire President can be.
Which leaves us with
- the further left or Socialist lane, comprising Sanders and Warren
- the left-y lane with Kamala, Booker, Yang and a couple of likely also-rans
- the just-about-left lane with Pete B, Amy Klobuchar, Jay Inslee and others
- the moderate lane dominated by Joe Biden, with Hickenlooper, Gillebrand and many other likely also-rans
The first debates are in 10 days time, and 4 of the 24 didn’t qualify. The rest will strive to remain relevant in their lane.
Coming to the bookies favorites, Kamala had been leading for most of last year. Being so far out, that didn’t say much. Now Biden is well ahead of the rest of the field, followed by Sanders, Warren, Pete B and Kamala, with the rest (including last year’s Texas star Beto) barely registering. Of course, there’s still 17 months to go, so a lot will change, but as of today, it does look like it will be between those 5.
On PredictIt, Biden leads at 27c, followed by Warren at 19, Biden 18, Pete at 16, and Kamala and Andrew Yang both at 11. Everbody else is below 5. Yang was only at 2c a couple of months ago, so if you had bet on him then, you could have pocketed 500%.
Who is Yang, you ask? In this diverse Dem race, with an unprecedented 6 women in the running, he is the other of an unprecedented 2 with Asian backgrounds, Kamala being the other (Tulsi, despite the Indian name, is not). The son of Taiwanese immigrants, he was involved in a lot of startups, mainly with social purposes. His signature issue is a guaranteed income of $ 1000 for all (as I wrote a year ago or so, trials of guaranteed income are underway in Holland, Finland and Kenya). Like Pete B, he has come from nowhere to do much better than half the field.
Coming to Pete Buttigeig, people laughed a year ago when he showed signs of joining the fray, saying Americans would never vote for an openly gay man as President. Well, well, now it looks like Americans may be more open to a gay man than a straight woman. In any case, he has shot up in the polls, and always been in the top 5 in the last 2 months. If he did become President, he would always be President Pete, as nobody can pronounce his last name without doing damage to their throats (except the Dutch, maybe. They have a lot of practice at that sort of thing).
Looking at all the candidates’ websites, I would like to live in Warren’s America. She has a plan for everything. Health care, education, veterans, criminal and prison reform, fighting poverty, inequality - name the issue, she has a plan. And most of those plans have a real appeal for liberal people like me.
Bake the best cake? Keep your clothes ironed? Train your dog? I am sure she has plans for all that as well.
The only problem is, I don’t think a policy wonk can win in a country where the majority of people are completely uninformed. The entire Resistance has only 1 goal, to defeat Trump (or the MF, as many of them politely call him, or Dotard, as I impolitely call him). They will probably coalesce around the candidate with the best chance of doing so, which right now looks like Biden. I personally think a Biden/Kamala ticket would be great, but Kamala will probably disagree with the order there.
But still a while to go. May the best horse win.
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