Iran conflict

Now wouldn’t it be great if the President of the US and the world’s Greatest Liar were 2 different people? The question about who is to blame for the attacks on the 2 ships in the Gulf 2 weeks ago(and 4 earlier attacks) and whether the shot down drone was in Irani territory or not,  shows the difficulties when the 2 people above are the same. After 10800+ false or misleading statements (as per WaPo count), Trump’s declaration that Iran was responsible drew scepticism not only in most of the rest of the world, but in the US as well.

So you can lie as much as you want, and with the spineless GOP only too willing to line up kneeling behind you to kiss your (insert body part), you may think there are no consequences. But when you make a claim on an important issue like this, the fact that you have zero credibility gives your opponent, in this case Iran, the upper hand with world opinion.

While European and other leaders have to be diplomatic, newspapers and opposition leaders have openly mocked Trump’s claims. As always, there are old Trump tweets to nullify what he says now. So when he said on Fox News that the intelligence pointed to Iran and “we have the best intelligence”, all the tweets from him denigrating the intelligence community were trotted out, including one just a week old where he said “they should go back to school”.  In Teheran, maybe.

And it certainly doesn’t help that Cheney and Rummy manipulated intelligence to get Bush to go to war with Iraq. These sins come back to haunt you. Its unlikely the US could pull together a coalition again to take on Iran. Especially since most of NATO believes that the US started this by walking away from the Iran nuclear agreement. 

Public opinion in western Europe is certainly on Iran’s side until definite proof of their responsiblity comes out. And even that may not change public opinion, as a lot of people believe that the US started this and Iran is justified in responding. And as Tony Blair found out, taking an unpopular side is not a great way to win the next election.

As to the actual ship attacks, could Iran have been the one responsible? Absolutely. Could it be that the drone really was over international waters? Certainly. On the other hand, there are others who could have an interest in creating such tension, including Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US itself. With the Greatest Liar as President, it just makes it that much more difficult to convince anybody that you are telling the truth.

The European (unsaid) view is that Iran has been unfairly backed into a corner, and is taking legitimate action to defend its interests. The ultimate chutzpah was Pompeo warning the Iranians not to break the nuclear deal - one year after the US broke it itself.

That’s the new Art of the Deal - we make a deal, but only you are supposed to keep it. I won’t, but I will hammer you if you won’t.

Meanwhile, Iran meets with the other 5 signatories of the JCPOA next week in Vienna. They are still trying to find a way to sidetrack US sanctions. While the “payment vehicle” set up this time may not work too well - this is probably the beginning of the end of American economic dominance. You can unfairly hold the world to ransom with your economic might. But that unfairness will finally result in chipping away at that might, till you cannot hold the world to ransom any more.

A hundred years ago, nobody thought that Britain’s might would be gone some day. Trump is ensuring that the same happens to the US - and probably quicker. 

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