Dem nomination Aug update

(before I return to gun madness).

So with the second round of Dem debates behind us, here some of my bold predictions - which we can check on a year from now.

First - the nominee will be either Biden, Kamala or Warren. Pete and Cory have been good, but its probably not yet time for them. I think Sanders, despite his huge popularity against Clinton, is not going to get more than his current following of around 16-20%.

Second - the ticket will NOT be 2 white men, or 2 people of color. Ideally it would be a man and a woman, one white, one minority, but there could still be a 2 women ticket (see below).

So, if Biden is the nominee, my guess is he will try to convince Kamala to be his VP. In case she turns that down, he will ask Stacey Abrams. Cory could be his third choice.

If Kamala is the nominee, she would ask somebody like Sherrod Brown to be her VP, looking to shore up her chances in the Rust Belt. If he demurs, she will go with Amy Klobuchar, thus giving a risky 2 woman ticket - but one that could well pay off, if Trump keeps up his puxxy talk and behavior. Remember the Caddy Girls at his Golf Club recently?

If Warren is the nominee, it gets a little more complicated. She would probably go for Cory first, and then Stacey Abrams, another 2 women ticket possibility. However, I think this has less chances of tumbling Trump than Kamala/Amy. She could also go for Julien Castro.

If I had to rank all the above possibilities on their chances of knocking out Trump, which should be the prime consideration of Dem primary voters (not to mention all decent people in the US and the wide world), here they are from best chance downwards.

Biden/Kamala and Kamala/Sherrod Brown (equal billing)

Biden/Stacey Abrams

Kamala/Amy  

Warren/Cory

Warren/Stacey or Warren/Castro (equal billing)

Notice that Pete is missing. I fear Americans are not ready for a gay President or VP, let alone a gay on a ticket with a woman or person of color. Other countries have changed quickly, but America is on social issues probably as slow as the Soviet Union. Everone marveled at Ireland changing almost overnight from a conservative, Catholic society to an open, Dutch-style one, and then accepting a gay, brown son of an immigrant as Prime Minister (or Taoiseach, as the Irish insist on calling him). That will hapen in the US probably the day after hell freezes over.

As I have written before, looking at all their policy proposals, I would like to live in Warren's vision of America. Unfortunately, I don't think there are enough Americans who will be attracted to that vision. She could still win against Trump, but it would be close. I think both Biden and Kamala have better chances, so will hope the nominee is one of them.

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Now for the problems - the Dems are unnecessarily making things more difficult for them on 3 fronts - Health Care, Immigration and Reparations. 

Medicare for All (or single payer) can be the final goal, but its not going to happen in 1 election, and unnecessarily harping on it is only going to drive away many moderates. Health Care is complicated, and provides easy GOP sound bites, even if misleading. But you cannot educate the population so quickly, and its better to go for the goal in incremental steps. I like Medicare for those who want it. As more and more people sign up, its only a question of time, say 15 years, before it will be the dominant system, and then one could go for full fledged single payer.

Immigration is more difficult, as no matter what they do, the GOP will always mischaracterize it as open borders, or treating illegals better than Americans. The Dems need to find a sensible balance here between Trump's inhumanity and their progressive base's ideas. And they have to be politicians - irrespective of what they may actually want, they need to keep their supporters and the few remaining moderates with them.

Similarly, Reparations just has too many pitfalls. Politically, it doesn’t make sense talking about it now, and alienating people you need to remove Trump.

Timothy Egan in the NYT put it best: it has to be all about beating Trump. Make it about him, and his horrid, racist, anti-worker, anti-woman, anti-environment, anti-science, anti-truth, anti-progress, anti-city, anti-American policies. He has no discernible governing philosophy but to rant and rage, to divide and belittle. People are begging for change.  

This is what the Dems have to hammer on every day. Arguments about Medicare, Immigration and Reparations can wait for another day.