Brexit - From Backstop to Fullstop
In my last Brexit update a couple of weeks ago, I predicted that Boris was getting ready to throw Northern Ireland under the bus. An Irish friend pointed out, rightly, that he was actually only throwing the DUP (the Unionist party) under the bus, as the Nationalist parties, with their goal of a united Ireland, are probably okay with a border in the Irish Sea.
And with the Brexit deal agreed, the border in the Irish Sea would become a reality until at least 2027, unless we get a united Ireland before that, which cannot be ruled out any longer. Nobody in 1983 dreamt we would have a united Germany 7 years later either.
Boris’ deal is 95% equal to May’s deal, which he and Parliament rejected thrice. The crucial difference is the removal of the Backstop, which was the mechanism to avoid a border on the island. It effectively kept the entire UK in the customs union, till alternative arrangements could be agreed on. That has now been replaced with what we can call the Fullstop, which once you take out all the fudge and obfuscation, effectively keeps NI in the EU till at least 2027.
One can again see similarities between Dotard and Boris. Dotard crowed about his USMCA, which is just NAFTA 1.1 Similarly Boris is crowing about his deal, which is just May 1.1 Dotard just threw his allies, the Kurds, under the bus. Boris just threw his allies, the DUP, under the bus.
No wonder the DUP is going to vote against it tomorrow, which means its chances of passing depend on enough Labour MPs from leave constituences backing it. The London bookies give it a little less than a 50% chance of passing. If it fails, Boris will have to ask for a 3 month extension and will then call an election, which could decide the whole thing if he wins a clear majority. If he doesn’t, Brexiternity will just keep marching on.
And with the Brexit deal agreed, the border in the Irish Sea would become a reality until at least 2027, unless we get a united Ireland before that, which cannot be ruled out any longer. Nobody in 1983 dreamt we would have a united Germany 7 years later either.
Boris’ deal is 95% equal to May’s deal, which he and Parliament rejected thrice. The crucial difference is the removal of the Backstop, which was the mechanism to avoid a border on the island. It effectively kept the entire UK in the customs union, till alternative arrangements could be agreed on. That has now been replaced with what we can call the Fullstop, which once you take out all the fudge and obfuscation, effectively keeps NI in the EU till at least 2027.
One can again see similarities between Dotard and Boris. Dotard crowed about his USMCA, which is just NAFTA 1.1 Similarly Boris is crowing about his deal, which is just May 1.1 Dotard just threw his allies, the Kurds, under the bus. Boris just threw his allies, the DUP, under the bus.
No wonder the DUP is going to vote against it tomorrow, which means its chances of passing depend on enough Labour MPs from leave constituences backing it. The London bookies give it a little less than a 50% chance of passing. If it fails, Boris will have to ask for a 3 month extension and will then call an election, which could decide the whole thing if he wins a clear majority. If he doesn’t, Brexiternity will just keep marching on.
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