Brexit update
Well, well, as I have said for 3 years now, it all revolves around the Irish border, and Clown Boris is now ready to throw Northern Ireland partly under the bus, with his latest proposal having it staying in the single market for agriculture and some goods. The Unionist DUP party, that propped up May’s govt and absolutely refused to have Northern Ireland treated separately to the rest of the UK, seems to now accept being partly under the bus. Maybe they are worried as polls show more support for a united Ireland in case of Brexit.
However, this is only a start. The EU is all but certain to reject this, and desperate to get the UK out, expect Boris to throw NI totally under the bus and accept that it will stay in the EU customs union. And I suspect the DUP will succumb to that as well, as for them, that’s still better than a united Ireland. Of course, the UK could have got that result a year ago, and avoided an extra year of chaos.
Here Irish writer Susan Kay describing Boris’ recent meeting with Leo Varadkar, which she called the first time since Ireland was subdued in 1171 that it had more power than its neighbour.
“Mr. Varadkar delivered a telling speech. He compared the tasks facing Mr. Johnson, who must negotiate the future of a Britain outside of the European Union, with the labors of Hercules. Ireland wished to be Britain’s “friend and ally, your Athena,” Mr. Varadkar said. It was an elegantly delivered kick in the arse.”
Loved that last sentence. In the Greek myth, one of the ways Athena helped Hercules was by knocking him out stone cold to prevent him from running riot. Is that what Varadkar was slyly hinting at?
When Boris introduced his new plan, he said its now “do or die” and he knew it would be criticized, but we was willing to face “shot and shell”. As an Eton and Oxford graduate (in English and the classics), I presume he was well aware that those are both quotations from Tennyson’s immortal poem, The Charge of the Light Brigade (the poem has “do and die”). It would be ironic if his Brexit fight ends with the same disaster as that fight.
But as somebody said on Politico, from the “Charge of the Light Brigade” to the England football team, Brits love stories about heroic failure. Just ask Tennyson.
My current prediction? Boris will cave and ask for an extension. After much typical EU fudging, they will agree to an “absolutely last” extension of 3 months till the end of January. Boris may be tempted to call an election during that time and hope for a majority to drive thru his current plan. As the opposition is divided, in the British first-past-the-post system, he may well get a majority. But that’s a gamble and certainly uncertain. Besides, he needs 148 non-Tory MPs to agree to a new election, and that itself is uncertain.
Another option would be to agree to NI staying in the EU customs union and get the rest of the UK out. Even if he wins an election, I suspect this is what he will finally do, as he is smart enough to know that No Deal may be politically appealing, but will in reality be a disaster. And the DUP will have no choice but to agree.
That doesn’t end Brexiternity. It only starts Part 2, as in case of a deal, nothing changes during a transition period of 18 months while the EU and the UK hammer out a new trade agreement. Expect that to drag out for a few more years, while the UK is effectively still in the EU, though with no say in its governance. By then I expect enough people to be fed up of the whole thing, wonder what it was all about, and just call Brexit off.
However, this is only a start. The EU is all but certain to reject this, and desperate to get the UK out, expect Boris to throw NI totally under the bus and accept that it will stay in the EU customs union. And I suspect the DUP will succumb to that as well, as for them, that’s still better than a united Ireland. Of course, the UK could have got that result a year ago, and avoided an extra year of chaos.
Here Irish writer Susan Kay describing Boris’ recent meeting with Leo Varadkar, which she called the first time since Ireland was subdued in 1171 that it had more power than its neighbour.
“Mr. Varadkar delivered a telling speech. He compared the tasks facing Mr. Johnson, who must negotiate the future of a Britain outside of the European Union, with the labors of Hercules. Ireland wished to be Britain’s “friend and ally, your Athena,” Mr. Varadkar said. It was an elegantly delivered kick in the arse.”
Loved that last sentence. In the Greek myth, one of the ways Athena helped Hercules was by knocking him out stone cold to prevent him from running riot. Is that what Varadkar was slyly hinting at?
When Boris introduced his new plan, he said its now “do or die” and he knew it would be criticized, but we was willing to face “shot and shell”. As an Eton and Oxford graduate (in English and the classics), I presume he was well aware that those are both quotations from Tennyson’s immortal poem, The Charge of the Light Brigade (the poem has “do and die”). It would be ironic if his Brexit fight ends with the same disaster as that fight.
But as somebody said on Politico, from the “Charge of the Light Brigade” to the England football team, Brits love stories about heroic failure. Just ask Tennyson.
My current prediction? Boris will cave and ask for an extension. After much typical EU fudging, they will agree to an “absolutely last” extension of 3 months till the end of January. Boris may be tempted to call an election during that time and hope for a majority to drive thru his current plan. As the opposition is divided, in the British first-past-the-post system, he may well get a majority. But that’s a gamble and certainly uncertain. Besides, he needs 148 non-Tory MPs to agree to a new election, and that itself is uncertain.
Another option would be to agree to NI staying in the EU customs union and get the rest of the UK out. Even if he wins an election, I suspect this is what he will finally do, as he is smart enough to know that No Deal may be politically appealing, but will in reality be a disaster. And the DUP will have no choice but to agree.
That doesn’t end Brexiternity. It only starts Part 2, as in case of a deal, nothing changes during a transition period of 18 months while the EU and the UK hammer out a new trade agreement. Expect that to drag out for a few more years, while the UK is effectively still in the EU, though with no say in its governance. By then I expect enough people to be fed up of the whole thing, wonder what it was all about, and just call Brexit off.
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