UK Vote - EU or Brexiternity

(If you like this post, do read others on my blog).

Despite all the hype and convoluted arguments on Trade and the NHS and chlorinated chickens and hormone-treated beef (and  now maybe Trump Toilets), the vote tomorrow boils down to a simple choice - Stay in the EU or go for Brexiternity.

Boris and the Tories have a simple slogan - Get Brexit Done.
But that has as much truth as Trump’s statement that the IG report confirmed all his accusations (they did exactly the opposite). Both Dotard and Boris are relying on duping the less-educated. In actual fact, even if the Tories win an absolute majority tomorrow (which most of the polls show, but more on that below) and the UK exits on 31st Jan, that is just the start of the Brexit process. Nothing changes till end 2020, at which time either the UK has a new Trade Agreement with the EU or they extend the interim period or they crash out.

I will bet you 100 pounds that they will decide not to crash out. Boris would have his coveted PM position, he knows crashing out would be a disaster, so just move on to Brexiternity. A trade agreement would take years to iron out. Unlikely it will be done till the next election is due end 2023. Boris has 4 years to come up with a message for that one.

In the meantime, everything stays mostly the same - with 1 major exception. The UK follows all EU rules but has no say. Boris will have to explain that at the end of 2020 when he decides to extend the interim period. But like Dotard, he is pretty good at convincing suckers with bogus claims.

If the Tories do NOT get a majority, I think there would have to be a second referendum with a clearer question than last time - Boris’ deal or Remain. Who wins that will depend on turnout. While figures are disputed, the consensus now is that only about half of under 25s voted in 2016, while over 80% of over 65s voted. The Under 25s made up the bulk of the huge protests afterwards, complaining that old prople had ruined their future. Well, they have their chance now. If 60% of them vote, its game over for Brexit, based on last time’s preferences. Preferences seem to have moved very little in 3 years, but changes in turnout can turn everything on its head.
There is little scope for the 65+ vote to increase from its 80% last time, but huge scope for increased turnout for the Under 25s from 50% last time.

Which is the same situation in tomorrow’s election. The polls show a Tory victory, but they are modelling the electorate based on the last 2 elections, so probably with only around 40% of the Under 25s voting. If this group turns out in higher numbers, the results could look very different. And if they don’t, they better stop complaining about the oldies destroying their future. This is their chance to preserve their future.

Prediction - I fear Boris may just eke out a majority, especially since Remain votes will be divided between Labour and LibDems. My hope is he just fails to get one - he can then sit on a Trump Toilet and ponder why his crap didn’t work. He produced so much of it that he may well have to flush 10-15 times. Even Trump Toilets sometimes need more water to cleanse the soul.

And then a second referendum could decide if the UK sticks with EU toilets after all. You need to flush only once.